Séminaire NANCY – Laurent Ferrara (SKEMA Business School)

Détails de l'événement :

“Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology?”

Abstract: This paper proposes a reference quarterly chronology for periods of expansion and recession in Francesince 1970, carried out by the Dating Committee of the French Economic Association (AFSE). Themethodology used is based on two pillars: (i) econometric estimations from various key data toidentify candidate periods, and (ii) a narrative approach that describes the economic backgroundthat prevailed at that time to finalize the dating chronology. Starting from 1970, the Committee hasidentified four economic recession periods: the two oil shocks 1974-75 and 1980, the investmentcycle of 1992-93, and the Great Recession 2008-09 spawned by the Global Financial Crisis. Thepeak before the Covid-19 recession has been identified in the last quarter of 2019.