Title : Decisions under ambiguities and value of information: An experiment on forest management in the context of climate change
Author(s) : Marielle Brunette, Stéphane Couture, Patrice Loisel
Abstract : Decision-making processes increasingly involve ambiguity rather than risk, and multiple ambiguities rather than a single one. In this article, we consider how different sources of ambiguity,as well as two-source ambiguity, affect decision-making in relation to risk. We also examine the value of information that eliminates or reduces ambiguity. Finally, we analyse the effect of ambiguity preferences on the results. To this end, we propose an experiment in forest management in the context of climate change, which is a typical decision-making situation involving multiple ambiguities. We demonstrate that the various sources of ambiguity modify the optimal decision in comparison to situations involving risk. Furthermore, we demonstrate that ambiguity aversion significantly impacts the optimal decision. The results reveal that the value of information that eliminates one-source ambiguity is positive in both one- and two-source ambiguity situations. However, ambiguity aversion has no significant impact on this value.
Key-words : risk, ambiguity, decision, information value.
JEL Classification : D81; Q23.
