Séminaire Cournot – Étienne Lalé (York University of Toronto)

Détails de l'événement :

Nous avons le plaisir d’accueillir pour la prochaine séance du séminaire Cournot du BETA organisé avec le soutien de la FSEG ce vendredi 28/11 à 14h00 :

Étienne Lalé (York University of Toronto)

qui nous présentera son article, écrit conjointement avec André Kurmann (Drexel University) et Julien Martin (Université du Québec à Montréal), intitulé

When Neighbors Stop Knocking: The Impact of Canada’s 2025 Tourism Decline on U.S. Local Businesses

Abstract: Escalating diplomatic tensions and new trade tariffs between Canada and the United States in early 2025 triggered a dramatic decline in Canadian tourism, with return trips falling 37% by car and 26% by air by June 2025. This sharp, exogenous shock provides a natural experiment to measure tourism’s domestic economic impact. We exploit the integrated Canada-U.S. mobile device ecosystem to construct highly granular, weekly measurements of Canadian tourist flows using foot-traffic data from Advan Research, combined with establishment-level employment data from Homebase. Our empirical strategy compares changes in exposure to Canadian tourists in 2025 relative to 2024, using instrumental variables based on natural amenities and distance to Canada. Preliminary findings reveal negative wage and hours effects in tourism-intensive U.S. regions, with heterogeneous impacts across industries and geographic areas but limited aggregate effects. These results provide timely evidence on how international trade disputes reverberate through local labor markets via reduced demand for non-traded services.