Séminaire COURNOT – Jamel Saadaoui (Université de Strasbourg, BETA)

Détails de l'événement :

“The Political Relation and Trade –  The Case of US,China and Australia”

Résumé. We utilize typical structural vector autoregression and local projection methods to examine the impacts of the deterioration in US-China political relations on Australia-China bilateral trade. By imposing a recursive identification scheme with different assumptions, the empirical results present that worsening US-China political relations decrease Australian exports to and imports from China. Under a time-varying structural vector autoregression model, we find that the deterioration in US-China political relations augments the negative impacts on Australia-China bilateral trade during the Trump’s administration. The empirical findings provide insightful policy suggestions to both Australian and Chinese governments.