Séminaire NANCY – Lesly Cassin (BETA)

Détails de l'événement :

“Go where the wind doesn’t blow: Climate damages heterogeneity and future migrations”

Abstract:

In the literature, as well as in the public debate, migration is now considered as an adaptation strategy to reduce populations’ exposure and vulnerability to climate change impacts. Integrated assessment models are a common tool used to study the interaction between climate damages and their impact on climate policy. However, those models do not include endogenous migration and population dynamics. In this paper, we study the socio-economic determinants of migration. We introduce the PRICE model, an IAM model based on the RICE model, with endogenous migration and three damages scenarios. This allows us to quantify migration induced by climate change according to the distribution of income losses among the regions. We find that climate induced migration depends strongly of the heterogeneity of damages among regions close to each other, i.e. where migration is not too costly. If the developing regions are disproportionately harmed by climate change, we might observe an increase of 7 to 12% in migration flows. In contrast, climate induced migration remains small when damages are homogeneous among regions (less than 1% of the total migration flows).