Séminaire COURNOT – Ekrame Boubtane (Université Clermont Auvergne)

Détails de l'événement :

Titre : International migration in France: Measurement issue and macroeconomic effects.

Résumé : This work in progress focuses on producing reliable statistics on migration flows in France in order to analyze their economic effects. Using residence permits information collected in the central foreigners register, what is known as AGDREF- Application de gestion des dossiers des ressortissants étrangers en France, we compute time series on immigration in France. These administrative data have the advantage of being exhaustive in their scope: foreign nationals from countries not members of the European Union or European Free Trade Association, who obtain a residence permit. This makes it possible to characterize the dynamics of immigration of third-country nationals to France, and to analyze their consequences for the economy. Among the results obtained, we observe an upward trend in migration for work and study purposes in recent years. Since 2008, selective labor migration has been growing at a steady pace, and a significant proportion of non-selective labor migration is due to case-by-case regularizations, through working, of irregular immigrants, including rejected asylum seekers.

Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models on monthly data for 1994-2018, we obtain that the response of the economy to an exogenous change in the immigration rate is significantly positive. Our results suggest that immigration in France contributes to raising the average standard of living and reducing unemployment. The decomposition according to category of entry gives interesting results: family immigration in particular have a positive effect on the economy.

Lieu du séminaire : Salle du Conseil Paul Chamley et ZOOM.

Lien ZOOM : https://cnrs.zoom.us/j/99129543418?pwd=cFBUbWlBMnZNQzgrSWNuVTRaY2UxZz09.

Agenda des séminaires : https://www.beta-economics.fr//seminaires-cournot-2022-2023/