Séminaire COURNOT – Shekar Thomar (Indian School of Business)

Détails de l'événement :

“Aggregate Shokcs, Domestic Trade Collapse an Regional Realignment”

Abstract:

How does trade within a country respond to aggregate shocks? Using novel administrative data, we show that COVID-19 induced shutdown in March 2020 led to a collapse in domestic trade across regions in India. Well after the movement restrictions were lifted, trade continues to suffer while GDP recovers as plants shift from inter- to intra-region sales and input-sourcing. Plants more dependent on inter-region sales (inputs) lead this regional realignment. Products with a higher pre-pandemic scope to expand into the home market witness greater realignment, accounting for 7.6 percent of the sales growth in the last quarter of 2020.

JEL Codes: F14, E32, L23, L6

Keywords: Trade Collapse, Regional Realignment, Scope for Home Expansion.