Ala’a Shqairat’s thesis defense

Abstract: The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) poses significant logistical challenges in managing end-of-life lithium-ion batteries (EV-LIBs). Addressing this issue is essential for achieving circular economy (CE) goals including sustainable resource management, as well as regulatory compliance, particularly within the EU context. This dissertation evaluates reverse logistics (RL) flows for EV-LIBs, focusing on the economic and environmental performance, and strategic implications under the CE framework.

The research systematically addresses five core objectives: (1) conceptualizing the EV-LIBs domain within RL and CE, identifying key thematic areas and research gaps; (2) examining external factors that shape the system, notably evolving EU regulatory frameworks, highlighting their impacts on stakeholder strategies; (3) forecasting EV-LIB volumes entering RL systems up to 2040, identifying mismatches with planned recycling capacities; (4) dynamically evaluating internal RL system factors—particularly storage dynamics, recycling capacity constraints, state-of-health (SOH)-based decision-making, transportation cost and emissions, and the viability of remanufacturing and second-life pathways; and (5) assessing strategic solutions such as in-house recycling, facility location adjustments, and the integration of consolidation centers.

A multi-layered methodology was employed, combining qualitative approaches (systematic literature review, semi-structured interviews, thematic policy analysis), quantitative forecasting (Material Flow Analysis and time series), and advanced dynamic modeling (hybrid System Dynamics–Agent-Based Modeling). Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) was incorporated for decision support, reflecting real-world operational complexity and stakeholder preferences.

Key findings reveal that EU regulations significantly shape RL strategies through mandatory collection rates and Extended Producer Responsibility, influencing stakeholder alignment and infrastructure investment decisions. Forecasts indicate imminent recycling capacity shortfalls, intensified by manufacturing scrap volumes. Dynamic evaluations highlighted storage volumes and residence times as critical bottlenecks, sensitive to SOH-based sorting thresholds.

Integrated scenario analyses identified remanufacturing and second-life applications as viable strategies, though economically and environmentally contingent on transportation cost and emissions related to facility settings and high upfront investments. Consolidation centers emerged as a promising coordination mechanism, demonstrating substantial cost (21%) and emission (74%) reductions under specific scenarios, where multi-stakeholder collaboration extends services and activities within the center.

Theoretically, this research develops an integrated framework linking RL to the CE, positioning RL as a dynamic system shaped by regulatory and geographic contexts. It also reconceptualizes consolidation centers as strategic coordination hubs at the meso level, bridging macro policies and micro innovations. Methodologically, it advances dynamic RL modeling methodologies, integrating System Dynamics, Agent-Based Modeling, and MCDM approaches, thus moving beyond traditional static analyses. Practically, the findings provide actionable insights for producers, recyclers, and policymakers regarding infrastructure investments, adjusted facility placements, SOH-based sorting strategies, and regulatory enhancements.

Overall, this dissertation contributes to robust and sustainable RL management of EV-LIBs, providing a comprehensive framework that supports strategic decision-making aligned with broader CE and sustainable transitions.

Keywords: Reverse Logistics ; Electric Vehicle Batteries ; Circular Economy ; System Evaluation ; Hybrid Modeling.